Poker Tournament Formula Spreadsheet

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Duncan Palamourdas

Tournament Templates This page is a collection of different competition templates for various sports and games. We have tournament templates that sport fans all over the world have downloaded times! Our free spreadsheet can help you following all kind of tournament games: badminton, bowling, tennis, golf, and, of course, soccer and football. Generate your own fixtures, schedule matches, create. Doing some trial runs myself, after 4250 tournaments if you have made money you could reasonably say you are winning player (only 5% of -10% ROI players are still making money after 4250). You could probably do other experiments with X amount of profit to determine if you are winning player sooner than 4250 tournaments. I really happy to find out this kinda spreadsheet exist. I am running a 12 teams Futsal tournament, and your spreadsheet is a great help. Only one thing, can I please ask a favor from you. In my tournament, winning is 2pt, is there a way to edit so winning point is 2pt instead of 3pt? Really really thank you. Poker contains a lot of repetitive math, especially when studying poker hands away from the table. While you can use software to do a lot of this math, sometimes a good ‘ol fashioned spreadsheet is the best way to visualize and play with the numbers.

Table Of Contents

It looks like you made it way past the bubble and secured a spot at the final table in a multi-table poker tournament at your local card room. Congratulations!

At this point, the money is starting to get serious with increasing pay jumps following each knockout. Suddenly, one of your fellow opponents brings up the c-word:

'Do you guys wanna chop?'

You probably knew it was coming, but how should you respond?

Before we explore possible answers, let's first attempt to understand the question. What does it mean to 'chop'?

(Hint: It's not as straightforward as you might think.)

What Does It Mean to 'Chop'?

In a nutshell, a 'chop' — or, more formally, a 'deal' — refers to the players' agreement to redistribute the remaining prize money among the current contestants in a way that everyone agrees upon.

Usually, when a deal is proposed, the tournament clock stops so that the players can discuss their options.

If they reach a universal agreement, the tournament ends and the prize money is distributed accordingly.

In some cases, a portion of the prize pool is set aside for which to play and the tournament continues until the winner claims that last share.

If even just one player disagrees, the other players can either propose a different deal or the tournament resumes.

If the above sounds a bit vague or open-ended, it's because it is!

As a matter of fact, most card rooms, having no horse in the race, would happily honour pretty much anything players come up with, so that they keep their customers satisfied and move on to the next event.

READ ALSO: Visiting a New Poker Room? You Better Ask These 7 Questions Before You Play

However, without any standard guidelines in place, players would have a hard time coming up with a mutually accepted proposal.

They do have conflicted interests after all, as they all want to make as much money as possible from a limited prize pool.

Poker

The Standard Chops in Poker

Luckily, there are some standard types of deals used widely in the industry. Let's look at the three most popular ones.

  • Equal Chop - The most straightforward type of deal where the remaining players distribute the prize money evenly.
  • Chip Chop - A slightly more elaborate method where each player gets the same percentage of the remaining prize pool as their percentage of chips in play.
  • ICM Chop - The most complex of the methods. It calculates the chance of each possible final ranking (based on current chip distribution) and weights it accordingly to estimate the expected return for each player (assuming players each possess an equal amount of skill).

How to Calculate a Deal at the Final Table

This is a lot to digest, so let's jump into some examples.

For the sake of simplicity let's assume that there are three players left:

  • Alice
  • Bob
  • Charlie

We'll also assume with these deals that no money is being set aside for which to play after the deal is done — that is, with each we're figuring out how to chop all of the remaining prize money.

  • Alice has 50,000 in chips
  • Bob has 30,000 in chips
  • Charlie has 20,000 in chips

This makes for an easy 50%-30%-20% distribution which will lead to easier calculations. The scheduled payouts are $900 for 1st place, $400 for 2nd, and $200 for 3rd for a total prize pool of $1,500. This is summarized in the two tables below:

RankPrizePlayerChips
1st place$900Alice50%
2nd place$400Bob30%
3rd place$200Charlie20%

With the above assumptions in mind, let's see what each player's share would be if they were to agree to split the prizes according to one of the three deal-making methods listed above.

LEARN: 5 Tips to Survive with a Short Stack in Poker Tournaments

Equal Chop

As the most straightforward of the methods, this will simply net each player an equal share of the total prize pool.

That is, each player will receive one-third of $1,500 or $500.

Chip Chop

For this option, the calculations remain rather simple.

Since Alice has 50% of the chips, she will receive 50% of the $1,500 prize pool or $750. Similarly, Bob will get 30% of $1,500 ($450) and Charlie 20% of $1,500 ($300).

Chip ChopPrize
Alice$750
Bob$450
Charlie$300

ICM Chop

Often what will happen when the 'chip chop' numbers don’t look good to everyone is for someone to request that 'ICM' figures to be produced, with the acronym standing for 'Independent Chip Model'.

The topic of ICM deal in poker is too complicated for us to delve into that deeply here — it’s relevance to tournament poker extends beyond just the area of final-table deals. But the concept behind it is easy enough to understand.

Like with the 'chip chop' method, the ICM method also assigns cash value to the chips in play.

However, ICM does not consider each chip to be of equal value, but rather accommodates for the fact that chips change in value as a tournament goes along.

It’s a calculation that takes into account each player’s chance of finishing in each of the remaining positions (based on the players’ relative stacks), then multiplies those percentages and adds them up to figure out a theoretical cash value for each player’s stack.

Many tournament players think the ICM is where things get complicated, but also more fair.

No one is going to be offered more than first-place money according to an ICM-based deal, nor is anyone going to be asked to take a deal in which they’d receive less than what the next eliminated player is scheduled to receive.

By way of comparison, let’s look again at the scenario listed above and see how the payouts would go if the ICM method was used.

Assuming that Alice deserves 50% of the entire prize pool is a little absurd if you think about it. If anything, she only deserves 50% of the first prize and much smaller pieces of lower prizes.

Unlike the 'chip chop' method, the 'ICM chop' method is more realistic in the way it estimates the chances of all of Alice's possible results, including ones where she doesn't finish first.

For instance, given the current stacks, a scenario in which Charlie comes first, Alice second, and Bob third (C-A-B) is relatively unlikely and it will only happen about 12.5% of the time.

For the mathematically inclined, that number is calculated as follows.

All else being equal, Charlie, with 20% of the remaining chips, has a 20% shot at the first place. From there, Alice has a 5-to-3 chip lead on Bob or 62.5% chance of winning second.

Altogether, then, we have a 0.20 * 0.625 = 0.125 = 12.5% chance of that C-A-B outcome happening.

Without a deal, if such a C-A-B scenario occurs, Alice will win $400 (second-place money), Bob will win $200 (third-place money), and Charlie will win $900 (first-place money).

Of course, because that outcome only happens about 12.5% of the time (1 out of 8 times), we have to scale that payoff down by multiplying it by 0.125 or dividing it by 8 (which is the same thing mathematically).

Either way, the expected payoff for the 3 players should only be 50-25-112.5 (see the 'C-A-B' row in the table below).

For the sake of due diligence, I summarized the chances and expected payoffs for each of the six possible outcomes of the tournament. For simplicity, I also rounded the results to the nearest dollar.

OutcomeChancePayoffAliceBobCharlieTotals:
A-B-C30%900-400-200$270$120$60$450
A-C-B20%900-200-400$180$40$80$300
B-A-C21.4%400-900-200$86$193$43$321
B-C-A8.6%200-900-400$17$77$34$129
C-A-B12.5%400-200-900$50$25$113$188
C-B-A7.5%200-400-900$15$30$68$113
Totals:100%$618$485$397$1,500
  • Outcome: The order in which they finish. C-A-B means: Charlie is 1st, Alice is 2nd, Bob is 3rd.
  • Chance: The likelihood of the outcome. The outcome C-A-B will happen 12.5% of the time.
  • Payoff: The assigned prizes in alphabetical order. 400-200-900 means Alice will be 2nd, Bob 3rd, and Charlie 1st.
  • Horizontal totals: The fraction of the total prize pool based on the chance. $188 = 12.5% * $1,500, etc.
  • Vertical totals: The results of the ICM. Alice deserves $618, Bob $485, and Charlie $397
  • All other cells: The expected payoff if the certain outcome occurs. Alice deserves $50 from the C-A-B outcome, etc.

All in all, this leads to the following expected payoff table:

ICM ChopPrize
Alice$618
Bob$485
Charlie$397

If you think the above calculations seem unapproachably complex, you are not alone!

The calculations are a little tedious to explain — especially at the end of an already long article — but understand that essentially what’s happening is each player’s chip stack is being looked at as representing the chance that player will be finishing first, second, third, or fourth.

Then, those percentages are multiplied by the payouts and the totals are added up to indicate amount the player is due (an amount referred to in some contexts as the player’s 'poker equity' in the tournament).

Luckily, these calculations are not meant to be done at the poker table. Instead, players and casinos alike typically use one of the many ICM apps and calculators that can be found online and can be used for free.

There you have it... a full breakdown of the three most popular chops used in card rooms today!

This brings us back to our original question, 'Do you guys wanna chop?' To which we now can add, 'If so, how do you guys wanna chop?'

Figuring out the best way to answer that question will be the topic of the second part of our conversation, so stay tuned.

Again, the answer is not as straightforward as you might think!

Should You Make a Deal?

Now that you know how to calculate an ICM deal in poker and you see why his is the fairest choice for everyone - let's answer to another question.

Should you make a deal?

Say you are one of four players left in a no-limit hold'em tournament that cost you $135 to play, and let's say the remaining prizes are:

  • $4,000 for first
  • $2,500 for second
  • $2,000 for third
  • $1,500 for fourth

All four of you are guaranteed at least $1,500, which isn't such a bad return on your $135 investment. But you're all also eyeing that $4,000 prize, too.

If you're the chip leader with four left, you stand to have a better chance of getting that first prize than do the other players.

But should you suffer an unlucky hand or two, you might find yourself the short stack and then in danger of going out in fourth.

It's the knowledge of the risks associated with tournament poker — and the significant role chance does play, especially at the end of a tourney when the blinds tend to be high and more often than not players have found it needful to edge over into an 'all-in-or-fold' strategy — that encourages some players to want to make deals to divide the remaining prize money rather than play out a tournament.

Making a deal is like buying insurance. You give up something, but you protect yourself against losing more later, as could happen if you bust in fourth and don't get any more of the remaining prize money up for grabs.

Deal Making / Chopping FAQ

What is a deal in poker?

A deal (or chop) refers to an agreement the players make to redistribute the remaining prize money between those still in play. For a deal to be effective, the agreement has to be accepted by all players.

What is 'ICM Deal' in poker?

An 'ICM Deal' is the most complex to calculate but also the most fair deal-type players can make in a poker tournament. The ICM Chop takes into account all the possible scenarios and re-distribute money accordingly.

How is ICM calculated?

The calculation of an ICM Deal in poker takes into account elements like:

  • The number of players in play
  • The stack of each player
  • The total prize pool
  • The tournament's payout structure

To learn the mathematical model to calculate an ICM deal in a poker tournament, see this example.

Konstantinos 'Duncan' Palamourdas is a math professor who specializes in the mathematics of poker. When not at the poker tables, Duncan can be found teaching poker classes at UCLA extension to people of all levels. His passion for simplifying complex poker concepts has also led to a poker book titled 'Why Alex beats Bobbie at Poker'. You can follow Duncan on Twitter @AskTheMathDr.

We also thank Martin Harris for the description of the ICM deals. Harris is the author of Poker & Pop Culture (D&B Poker Publishing) and has been PokerNews Associate Editor and Head of Strategy Content for nearly 15 years.

  • Tags

    tournament strategydeal-makingfinal table strategystack sizeschip chopICMICM chop

This post works with 5-card Poker hands drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. The discussion is mostly mathematical, using the Poker hands to illustrate counting techniques and calculation of probabilities

Working with poker hands is an excellent way to illustrate the counting techniques covered previously in this blog – multiplication principle, permutation and combination (also covered here). There are 2,598,960 many possible 5-card Poker hands. Thus the probability of obtaining any one specific hand is 1 in 2,598,960 (roughly 1 in 2.6 million). The probability of obtaining a given type of hands (e.g. three of a kind) is the number of possible hands for that type over 2,598,960. Thus this is primarily a counting exercise.

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Preliminary Calculation

Usually the order in which the cards are dealt is not important (except in the case of stud poker). Thus the following three examples point to the same poker hand. The only difference is the order in which the cards are dealt.

These are the same hand. Order is not important.

The number of possible 5-card poker hands would then be the same as the number of 5-element subsets of 52 objects. The following is the total number of 5-card poker hands drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards.

The notation is called the binomial coefficient and is pronounced “n choose r”, which is identical to the number of -element subsets of a set with objects. Other notations for are , and . Many calculators have a function for . Of course the calculation can also be done by definition by first calculating factorials.

Thus the probability of obtaining a specific hand (say, 2, 6, 10, K, A, all diamond) would be 1 in 2,598,960. If 5 cards are randomly drawn, what is the probability of getting a 5-card hand consisting of all diamond cards? It is

This is definitely a very rare event (less than 0.05% chance of happening). The numerator 1,287 is the number of hands consisting of all diamond cards, which is obtained by the following calculation.

The reasoning for the above calculation is that to draw a 5-card hand consisting of all diamond, we are drawing 5 cards from the 13 diamond cards and drawing zero cards from the other 39 cards. Since (there is only one way to draw nothing), is the number of hands with all diamonds.

If 5 cards are randomly drawn, what is the probability of getting a 5-card hand consisting of cards in one suit? The probability of getting all 5 cards in another suit (say heart) would also be 1287/2598960. So we have the following derivation.

Thus getting a hand with all cards in one suit is 4 times more likely than getting one with all diamond, but is still a rare event (with about a 0.2% chance of happening). Some of the higher ranked poker hands are in one suit but with additional strict requirements. They will be further discussed below.

Another example. What is the probability of obtaining a hand that has 3 diamonds and 2 hearts? The answer is 22308/2598960 = 0.008583433. The number of “3 diamond, 2 heart” hands is calculated as follows:

Poker Tournament Formula Spreadsheet Download

One theme that emerges is that the multiplication principle is behind the numerator of a poker hand probability. For example, we can think of the process to get a 5-card hand with 3 diamonds and 2 hearts in three steps. The first is to draw 3 cards from the 13 diamond cards, the second is to draw 2 cards from the 13 heart cards, and the third is to draw zero from the remaining 26 cards. The third step can be omitted since the number of ways of choosing zero is 1. In any case, the number of possible ways to carry out that 2-step (or 3-step) process is to multiply all the possibilities together.

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The Poker Hands

Here’s a ranking chart of the Poker hands.

The chart lists the rankings with an example for each ranking. The examples are a good reminder of the definitions. The highest ranking of them all is the royal flush, which consists of 5 consecutive cards in one suit with the highest card being Ace. There is only one such hand in each suit. Thus the chance for getting a royal flush is 4 in 2,598,960.

Royal flush is a specific example of a straight flush, which consists of 5 consecutive cards in one suit. There are 10 such hands in one suit. So there are 40 hands for straight flush in total. A flush is a hand with 5 cards in the same suit but not in consecutive order (or not in sequence). Thus the requirement for flush is considerably more relaxed than a straight flush. A straight is like a straight flush in that the 5 cards are in sequence but the 5 cards in a straight are not of the same suit. For a more in depth discussion on Poker hands, see the Wikipedia entry on Poker hands.

The counting for some of these hands is done in the next section. The definition of the hands can be inferred from the above chart. For the sake of completeness, the following table lists out the definition.


Definitions of Poker Hands

Poker HandDefinition
1Royal FlushA, K, Q, J, 10, all in the same suit
2Straight FlushFive consecutive cards,
all in the same suit
3Four of a KindFour cards of the same rank,
one card of another rank
4Full HouseThree of a kind with a pair
5FlushFive cards of the same suit,
not in consecutive order
6StraightFive consecutive cards,
not of the same suit
7Three of a KindThree cards of the same rank,
2 cards of two other ranks
8Two PairTwo cards of the same rank,
two cards of another rank,
one card of a third rank
9One PairThree cards of the same rank,
3 cards of three other ranks
10High CardIf no one has any of the above hands,
the player with the highest card wins

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Counting Poker Hands

Straight Flush
Counting from A-K-Q-J-10, K-Q-J-10-9, Q-J-10-9-8, …, 6-5-4-3-2 to 5-4-3-2-A, there are 10 hands that are in sequence in a given suit. So there are 40 straight flush hands all together.

Four of a Kind
There is only one way to have a four of a kind for a given rank. The fifth card can be any one of the remaining 48 cards. Thus there are 48 possibilities of a four of a kind in one rank. Thus there are 13 x 48 = 624 many four of a kind in total.

Full House
Let’s fix two ranks, say 2 and 8. How many ways can we have three of 2 and two of 8? We are choosing 3 cards out of the four 2’s and choosing 2 cards out of the four 8’s. That would be = 4 x 6 = 24. But the two ranks can be other ranks too. How many ways can we pick two ranks out of 13? That would be 13 x 12 = 156. So the total number of possibilities for Full House is

Note that the multiplication principle is at work here. When we pick two ranks, the number of ways is 13 x 12 = 156. Why did we not use = 78?

Flush
There are = 1,287 possible hands with all cards in the same suit. Recall that there are only 10 straight flush on a given suit. Thus of all the 5-card hands with all cards in a given suit, there are 1,287-10 = 1,277 hands that are not straight flush. Thus the total number of flush hands is 4 x 1277 = 5,108.

Straight
There are 10 five-consecutive sequences in 13 cards (as shown in the explanation for straight flush in this section). In each such sequence, there are 4 choices for each card (one for each suit). Thus the number of 5-card hands with 5 cards in sequence is . Then we need to subtract the number of straight flushes (40) from this number. Thus the number of straight is 10240 – 10 = 10,200.

Three of a Kind
There are 13 ranks (from A, K, …, to 2). We choose one of them to have 3 cards in that rank and two other ranks to have one card in each of those ranks. The following derivation reflects all the choosing in this process.

Two Pair and One Pair
These two are left as exercises.

High Card
The count is the complement that makes up 2,598,960.

The following table gives the counts of all the poker hands. The probability is the fraction of the 2,598,960 hands that meet the requirement of the type of hands in question. Note that royal flush is not listed. This is because it is included in the count for straight flush. Royal flush is omitted so that he counts add up to 2,598,960.

Poker Tournament Formula Spreadsheet


Probabilities of Poker Hands

Poker HandCountProbability
2Straight Flush400.0000154
3Four of a Kind6240.0002401
4Full House3,7440.0014406
5Flush5,1080.0019654
6Straight10,2000.0039246
7Three of a Kind54,9120.0211285
8Two Pair123,5520.0475390
9One Pair1,098,2400.4225690
10High Card1,302,5400.5011774
Total2,598,9601.0000000

Poker Tournament Formula Spreadsheet Online

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2017 – Dan Ma